With the expected unveiling Tuesday of two new iPhones, Apple is entering a crucial stretch of product launches and upgrades that fans and shareholders hope will supercharge its flagging growth and restore its image.
The string of new hardware, software and service launches could certainly go a long way toward helping the company put behind it what one analyst called "a year to forget."
Apple Inc.'s second year under Chief Executive Tim Cook has been less triumphant than his first as the company's business and image both came under attack in financial, political and legal forums.
Full Coverage: Apple iPhone event
Apple's new product releases are followed with a near-religious fervor unique to the company. But analysts say Apple's challenges are greater now as increased competition and a maturing smartphone market mean there's no guarantee a new slate of iPhone and iPad upgrades will generate the same enthusiasm as in years past.
"The difference this time around is that the competition for Apple has dramatically changed," said Tim Bajarin, an analyst and president of Creative Strategies Inc. "The stakes are higher for Apple to deliver superior hardware, software and services."
First up for Apple is an event Tuesday at its Cupertino, Calif., headquarters. The company is widely expected to unveil two new iPhones.
The first probably will be the iPhone 5S, a device aimed at higher-end users with new features such as a fingerprint scanner for added security, a faster processor and possibly the option of a gold casing.
But analysts are far more eager to see the iPhone 5C, a lower-cost version available in an array of colors and aimed at emerging markets and first-time smartphone buyers who are increasingly price-conscious.
In addition, there have been rumblings that Apple may be close to a deal with China Mobile Ltd., that nation's largest carrier, to sell the cheaper phone. If a China Mobile deal is announced Tuesday, that may well overshadow talk of the new iPhones' features. Although the company hasn't confirmed such a deal, Apple is holding a separate media event in Beijing nine hours after the U.S. announcements.
Getting China Mobile — with seven times more customers than U.S. leader Verizon Wireless — to sell the iPhone could rev up Apple's growth more than any new product. And it could help Apple begin to fight back in overseas and emerging markets where it continues to lose market share to Samsung's Android-based smartphones.
"I think the 'C' stands for 'China,'" said Carl Howe, a Yankee Group analyst. "I think in many ways, it's not as much a technology announcement this week. It's much more material if they say they're going to get China Mobile to sell the iPhone."
Still, Apple is just getting started. Later this month it will release iOS 7, the radically redesigned version of its mobile operating system. The new iOS will also contain iTunes Radio, Apple's new streaming music service.
In October, the company is expected to hold another event featuring updated versions of its iPad and the iPad Mini tablets. The company reported a surprising drop in iPad sales in the most recent quarter. And worldwide, sales of all tablets have fallen recently.
Apple will also release a new version of its desktop operating system called Mavericks. And there will soon be a beta version available for Apple's iWorks products in iCloud.
This parade of product debuts can't come soon enough for fans and analysts. Many had expected at least some of these products to appear in the spring, or summer at the very latest.
Instead, the Apple news void was largely filled with uncharacteristic mistakes, a plunging stock price and several unexpected black eyes.
Heading into this same period last year, Apple was riding a tidal wave of goodwill. Reviews of Cook's first year had largely been glowing. The company's stock price was heading toward its all-time high.
Then in September 2012, Apple started to falter.
The company's new Apple Maps app was so bad that Cook issued an apology. The company was plagued by manufacturing delays, forcing customers to wait weeks to get their new iPhone 5 and cutting into Apple's sales for several quarters.
Cook announced a management restructuring that included pushing out Scott Forstall, a Steve Jobs favorite who had been in charge of the mobile operating system. The company also dismissed an executive who had recently been hired to run Apple's retail operations, and has yet to name a replacement as sales at some stores have stalled.
Meanwhile, the stock tumbled more than 40% at one point. A dissident shareholder filed a lawsuit. And even though the company massively increased its stock buyback and dividend programs to record levels, shareholder activist Carl Icahn revealed a campaign this summer to push Apple to increase them even more.
Throw in Cook having to testify in front of Congress about Apple's controversial tax reduction schemes, and the loss of an antitrust lawsuit in an e-book price-fixing trial, and it was what analyst Brian White of Cantor Fitzgerald called in a note to clients a "year to forget."
"The past year was extremely challenging for Apple's stock as the higher-end smartphone market hit a wall and the ramp of new product categories did not come to fruition," White wrote.
Despite the gloom, the Apple faithful remain optimistic. The stock has enjoyed a bit of a comeback this summer, boosted in part by Icahn's campaign.
The stock closed Monday up $8.17, or 1.64%, to $506.39. That's up nicely from the most recent low of $390.53 in April, but still well off the all-time high of $702.10 reached last September.
While the upcoming announcements are important, they also lack a certain sex appeal, the kind that's likely to set the hearts of hard-core users racing.
For that kind of rush, these loyalists are looking further ahead: There has been intense speculation that the company will soon release an iWatch, an Apple TV or other device that will define a new category of technology and leave users wondering how they ever lived without it.
"You talk to their competitors, they're all waiting for Apple to drop the next innovative shoe," Bajarin said. "I would personally never bet against Apple inventing new products that reinvent old products. This company can still go after new markets and all these competitors will be forced to play catch up again."
Twitter: @obrien
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